Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3
(No., Horse, Pool 3 morning line, Pool 2 odds, Pool 1 odds)
1. Animal Kingdom, 30-1, 7-2(f), 2-1(f)
2. Anthony’s Cross, 50-1, 45-1, 45-1
3. Astrology, 50-1, 53-1, 48-1
4. Brethren, 50-1, 30-1, 15-1
5. Comma to the Top, 50-1, 85-1, 90-1
6. Dialed In, 10-1, 11-1, 8-1
7. Decisive Moment, 50-1, 7-2(f), 186-1
8. Elite Alex, 30-1, 31-1, 2-1 (f)
9. Jaycito, 20-1, 16-1, 21-1
10. Mr. Commons, 50-1, 7-2(f), 2-1 (f)
11. Mucho Macho Man, 30-1, 29-1, 30-1
12. Nehro, 30-1(f), 7-2(f), 2-1 (f)
13. Pants On Fire, 20-1, 7-2(f), 2-1 (f)
14. Premier Pegasus, 8-1, 7-2(f), 2-1 (f)
15. Santiva, 30-1, 31-1, 37-1
16. Silver Medallion, 30-1, 31-1, 66-1
17. Soldat, 10-1, 13-1, 18-1
18. Stay Thirsty, 20-1, 25-1, 40-1
19. The Factor, 6-1, 32-1, 25-1
20. To Honor and Serve, 15-1, 14-1, 10-1
21. Twice the Appeal, 50-1, 7-2(f), 2-1 (f)
22. Uncle Mo, 3-1, 3-1, 7-2
23. Watch Me Go, 50-1, 7-2(f), 2-1 (f)
24. Field (all others), 10-1, 7-2, 2-1
(f) – denotes field entry

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

$0.50 Superfectas are fun

Mountaineer, a.k.a The Mountain, a.k.a Mountain Welfare offers $0.50 supers.  I've hit quite a few of them and the payouts can be hefty if you wheel them properly (boxing is for rookies).  Some obvious angles I've noticed is Deshawn Parker & Oswalda Pereira get the good mounts, deservedly so.  However, they are over bet which creates an opportunity.  Next, the 50 centers are best played on 5 to 6.5 furlong races, too much can go wrong in a mile and up.  Third, only bet the 50 centers on a 6 to 8 horse field.  Forth, don't be afraid to put the bombs on top and for 4th place key in some mega bomb closer types 20-1 & up.  Typical wager ranges from $3.50 to $9.00. The templates which I've had success with include:

Key the Heavy Fav:  1 with 2,3,4 with 2,3,4 with 2,3,4,5,6  (2 & 3 are semi-bombs 8-1 & up , 4 is 2nd choice, 5 & 6 are those good for nothing's that hit 4th place randomly but have mega odds, 20-1 & up).  This wager would cost $9.00.

Key Heavy Fav in Second:  2,3,4 with 1 with 2,3,4 with 2,3,4,5,6 is $9.00 as well.

2 Bombs/2Favs/2 Bombs1Fav/1Fav2 Bombs1good for nothing:  2,3 with 1,4 with 1,2,3 with 2,3,4,5 is $5.00.  This template I've had the most success with.  You can use different variations of it as well, eg. Bomb with Semi-Bomb with Fav with Bomb.  Just key the Fav in 3rd.

Monday, March 28, 2011

debauchery

Almost April Derby Top 10

1.  Premier Pegasus
2.  Stay Thirsty
3.  Soldat
4.  Uncle Mo
5.  Archarcharch
6.  Maclean's Music
7.  Jaycito***
8.  The Factor
9.  Dialed In
10. Mucho Macho Man

***Next stop will most likely be The Wood Memorial along with Uncle Mo.  Unless I see improvement off the San Felipe, I'm removing him off my Top 10.  Needs to break faster and rate better.  Not really feeling him in Santa Anita Derby, lets have him come east. Watch his effort is the 2010 Norfolk.  Be on the look out for our Pool 3 Future wager analysis.

Sunday, March 27, 2011

Sunland Derby Aftermath

#9 Twice the Appeal punched his Derby ticket with a nice tactical trip in which he rated the pace like an old pro.  Our top #3 Fusa Code broke awkwardly and never really recovered.  #11 Astrology looked and closed well. The #7 Sinai was not a real factor.

SunLand Derby

One of our 2011 angles starting to take shape is in fact the Steve Assmussen angle.(saa)  In today's  Sunland Derby we have two entrants out of this barn.  In our opinon both these Horses #11 Astrology (5/2) and #3 Fusa Code (8-1) and projected to run big.. Astrology has been prepping like a tiger and should be getting a better ride in this event than in his last where he contended a hot early pace.  Fusa Code is the value at (8-1) and has an improving figs to put him in contention here today.  Fusa Code is also a (Lrat) last race at track angle. This is one of our favorite angles to use making this horse a live play for us, where this colt ran a nice race already here in sundland.  We like horses that are acclumated already with there surroundings and footing etc at the track at hand. #7 Sinai is also colt that Baffert has shipped to town and has potential written all over him

The Play

1$ tri     7-3 with 11 with 7-3-6  
2$ ex box  (11-3-7)
5$ ex 11 with 3-7
good luck today,,, as we are trying to break our maiden on our very own blogger site

Saturday, March 26, 2011

Our Lingo

TA: Trainer Angle
CS: Clocker Special
HE: Two Workouts At Track
LL: Live Longshot
$$:  Horse that has a shitload of earnings
CL: Chris Longshot
TJ:  Trainer/Jocker Combo
DS: Distance Specialist
HC: Horse for the Course 
BL:  Good Bloodline